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This blog is not investment advice. It’s a free blog that allows me to express my own views of the market and the economy. Please do not ask for an investment advice on this blog.

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On this blog, I sometimes will discuss backtested strategies.

Backtested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. Actual performance for client accounts may be materially lower than that of the index portfolios. Backtested performance results have certain inherent limitations. Such results do not represent the impact that material economic and market factors might have on an investment adviser’s decision-making process if the adviser were actually managing client money. Backtested performance also differs from actual performance because it is achieved through the retroactive application of model portfolios designed with the benefit of hindsight. As a result, the models theoretically may be changed from time to time and the effect on performance results could be either favorable or unfavorable.

Backtest assumes perfect execution of trades and does not take into account slippage, assumes re-investment of all dividends and interest, no distributions from model, and assumes a hypothetical cost or fee of 2.25% per year deducted pro-rata on a monthly basis.  Slippage is the difference in price an investor might have actually gotten upon placing a trade order and the perfect closing price assumed in the model.  Including this limitation, backtesting has other limitations as well including an investors ability to completely remove emotion from their investing process and actually follow a statistical model.  Backtesting is also done with the benefit of hindsight; i.e., the model was created knowing it would have worked historically.  I feel backtesting is important but in no way is a guarantee a model will work the same in the future as it may have “hypothetically” worked as a model.

Please note, I am the owner of Riverbend Investment Management, LLC, a Virginia registered investment advisor. If I am discussing a specific company and or its stock, and I have a personal -or a firm/client- position, I will disclose that position at the end of the post.

Also, I like to speak about various investment models and backtest them. Some of the models I use, some I don’t. Please contact me if you would like a detailed copy of a backtested model, showing:

1) The name of each security in the model

2) the  date and nature of each buy, sell or hold signal

3) the market price – note I use the end of day price in all models

4) the most current market price of the above securities

It should not be assumed that recommendations in a model made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities on this list

It should also be noted that the performance results of any investment model on this blog does not represent the actual trading performance of clients’ assets.

Lastly, this is my blog. I make the rules. If you post obnoxious and unproductive (ie SPAM) comments, I will delete them.


This illustration is a hypothetical example of how the investment model for this strategy may work as designed. The data presented for this strategy is from investment models that the manager uses as a pattern to guide investment decisions in client accounts and may not represent an actual client account. Normally performance data is constructed from lists of model trades the gains and losses from which are added together with the sum of the values adjusted downward quarterly to reflect the impact of the ARTIAS maximum portfolio management fee. Portfolio performance data during periods of complex trading activity may be gathered by recording values in a single representative account which includes deduction of maximum management fees. Activity in client accounts may be substantially different from that shown in the model in amount of each investment, specific timing of trades, the actual security used and contributions or withdrawals which may vary from account to account. The subjective nature of evaluating the effect of transaction costs and internal expenses of investments weighed against varying trade sizes among accounts and anticipated holding periods mean that large and small accounts will often hold different investments pursuing the same objective, which may at times create materially different performance results between large and small accounts following the same model. This data does not represent a dollar weighted, daily average of results of all accounts, and therefore should be considered hypothetical because it does not accurately reflect actual activity across all client accounts.

Data shown in this performance snapshot represents hypothetical buys or sells that were generated from real-time signals for the model strategy in use at that time. ARTAIS investment models may change as they strive to adapt to changing markets, therefore the investments represented in this hypothetical model and the signals that generated the buy and sell signals are not necessarily the investments or signals that will be used in the future. Other investments and signals may be used that may produce different results. This hypothetical illustration may report monthly returns rather than daily returns, and therefore may materially understate volatility. A list of all hypothetical transactions for the past 12 months is available upon written request. Certain buy prices have been adjusted for distributions between the purchase and sale dates so they will have no meaningful effect on the percent changes or overall rates of return shown. Certain mutual funds may employ short term redemption fees which can be triggered by a sale of the fund within a certain period after purchase. The manager strives to avoid triggering these fees when possible, however clients newly employing a strategy may have a higher incidence of short term redemption fees than previous clients because the manager makes decisions to hedge or adjust positions similarly in all accounts in times of market decline without regard to when a client entered the strategy. Short term redemption fees, if incurred, are not reflected in this data.
No claim is made that the strategy will perform in the future as it has in the past or as illustrated above. Also, there can be no assurances that the strategy will produce a profit in the future; it is possible that the strategy will produce losses.

Client accounts are managed on a discretionary basis by John Rothe, of Rivebend Investment Management, LLC a Virginia Registered Investment Adviser.

Model performance information assumes reinvestment of all dividends and capital gains, if any. Model performance assumes investment at the beginning of the period indicated and reflects all changes among various types of investments due to signals generated by the strategy indicated. Performance related numbers, including the Net Average Annualized Portfolio Gain after fees, reflect the deduction from client accounts of the maximum quarterly management fee, transaction charges, if any, and all internal mutual fund fees and expenses. The hypothetical composite performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes. Please refer to Rivebend Investment Managmenet’s Form ADV Part II or contact John Rothe for details of the current management fee structure.

The information shown is hypothetical past performance and past performance is not indicative of future results. Therefore no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product made reference to directly or indirectly by a representative of Riverbend Investment Management, on its web site or unaffiliated third party web site will be profitable or equal to performance levels shown. Investment return and principal value will vary so that when redeemed, an investor’s account values may be worth more or less than when purchased.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and this degree of risk can change without warning depending upon market conditions.Riverbend Investment Management uses its best efforts, but cannot be held responsible for extreme market volatility or market closures, which may materially and negatively affect the value of client accounts. There can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be profitable or remain suitable for a client’s or prospective client’s portfolio. No client or prospective client should assume that any information presented and/or made available by an Riverbend Investment Management representative or on its web site serves as the receipt of or a suitable substitute for personalized individual advice from Riverbend Investment Management or any other investment professional.

Despite Riverbend Investment Management’s efforts to capture and quantify the key financial and economic relationships in the global financial markets, our knowledge about many of the important linkages is far from complete and in all likelihood will remain so. Every investment model, no matter how detailed or how well designed, conceptually and empirically, is a vastly simplified representation of the securities markets with all its intricacies and variables.

*The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the entire stock market. The Vanguard Total Market Bond Index fund is a mutual fund considered representative of the US bond market. 6-Month CDS are considered safe haven investments. The volatility of these benchmarks and that of the model portfolio are materially different. The benchmark Index may not accurately reflect the performance of individual segments of various markets used in this strategy. At times this strategy will invest in securities that are not included in any of these indexes. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Many of the strategies shown involve investing in mutual funds as well as other types of securities. Mutual fund shares are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency, are not guaranteed by any financial institution, are not obligations of any financial institution, and involve investment risk, including possible loss of principal.