New NAAIM Survey Is Out - What Money Managers Are Thinking - John Rothe | Portfolio Manager, Quant, Tech Geek, And Sometime Superhero To My Kids

New NAAIM Survey Is Out – What Money Managers Are Thinking

The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total Return Index on the survey date. The purple line depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM managers’ responses.

 

The NAAIM Number
67.74
Last Quarter Average
50.26

 

Date NAAIM Number Mean/Average Bearish Quart1 Quart2 Quart3 Bullish Deviation
07/18/12 67.74 -125 47.50 70.00 92.50 200 52.76
07/11/12 61.85 -125 37.10 60.00 89.75 200 53.62
07/05/12 63.28 -125 46.00 60.00 83.50 180 49.21
06/27/12 44.84 -125 30.00 50.00 64.50 200 48.14
06/20/12 52.33 -125 32.50 53.00 70.00 200 45.66
06/13/12 43.63 -10 22.50 40.00 62.16 125 29.53
06/06/12 49.32 0 25.00 50.00 60.00 140 34.96
05/30/12 28.65 -125 0.00 36.50 57.10 110 46.73
05/23/12 31.78 -125 13.00 40.00 50.00 135 45.50
05/16/12 58.71 0 36.50 50.00 87.00 200 41.36

 

NAAIM member firms who are active money managers are asked each week to provide a number which represents their overall equity exposure at the market close on a specific day of the week, currently Wednesdays. Responses can vary widely as indicated below. Responses are tallied and averaged to provide the average long (or short) position or all NAAIM managers, as a group.

 

Range of Responses:

 

200% Leveraged Short
100% Fully Short
0% (100% Cash or Hedged to Market Neutral)
100% Fully Invested
200% Leveraged Long

 

Data collection issues that may affect the statistical significance of this data include:

 

Use of a single, composite number for each adviser may not accurately represent the market view of a manager who has short term and long term strategies that are providing conflicting signals or a manager who uses both contra-trend and trend following strategies for different portfolios.

 

Investment Styles very widely among managers participating in this survey. They may include managers that trade very frequently and can switch long and short positions daily. Other managers stay fully invested at all times and only change allocations among market segments or sectors. Still others trade around core positions and only a portion of their portfolios change, but that portion could potentially go from long to short very quickly.

 

Sample size: Although the number of participating managers, known as NAAIM Trend Setters, is steadily growing the sample size is not large and therefore may be less reflective of actual market conditions.

 

via (NAAIM.org)

 

 

 

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