Not Looking Pretty: Jobs Edition - John Rothe | Portfolio Manager, Quant, Tech Geek, And Sometime Superhero To My Kids

Not Looking Pretty: Jobs Edition

Yesterday, the Department of Labor issued its most recent intial claims report. This report shows 428k new claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending 10 September, increasing from an upwardly revised 417k claims the week prior. The data points are starting to show a rising trend in new claims:  

Earlier this week I posted a chart showing a decline in corporate tax receipts, indicating that corporate revenue may be slowing down and may lead to more layoffs in the near future:

corporate tax receipts

In addition, the Politico noted a recent research piece from Harris Private Bank’s Jack Ablin:

“CEO sentiment, as measured by Chief Executive Magazine, is slipping. Senior executives make hiring decisions and CEO confidence tends to lead hiring by about two quarters. Worries in the executive suite could spell trouble in the jobs market. Unless attitudes improve, expect year-over-year hiring to turn negative sometime early next year.”

More and more, the data is showing that unemployment may be on the verge of getting much worse – especially after the holiday shopping season is over (temporary jobs increase during this time of year). We might start to see some aggressive plans -or televised debates(it is an election year in 2012)- in the near future from Congress and the White House on the job creation front. Hopefully…

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