Where Is The Market Heading? AKA: Potential Support Levels - John Rothe | Portfolio Manager, Quant, Tech Geek, And Sometime Superhero To My Kids

Where Is The Market Heading? AKA: Potential Support Levels


The broad market indices tend to line up nicely with Fibonacci support  levels. Traders, and especially algo traders, like to use these points as potential reversal points.

Fibonacci Retracement defined via Investopedia:

Definition of ‘Fibonacci Retracement’

A term used in technical analysis that refers to areas of support (price stops going lower) or resistance (price stops going higher). The Fibonacci retracement is the potential retracement of a financial asset’s original move in price. Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before it continues in the original direction. These levels are created by drawing a trendline between two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement is a very popular tool used by many technical traders to help identify strategic places for transactions to be placed, target prices or stop losses. The notion of retracement is used in many indicators such as Tirone levels, Gartley patterns, Elliott Wave theory and more. After a significant price movement up or down, the new support and resistance levels are often at or near these lines.

What does this mean? Basically, look at the 1390 level on the S&P 500 for a small bounce and 1375 for the low.

However, keep an eye on the VIX levels (i.e. the fear gauge). The VIX is now trading above its 200 day moving average, indicating that fear and volatility may be coming back to the market for a period longer than just a few days:

If investors start to panic, the 1375 level on the S&P 500 would easily be broken.

 

 

 

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