In September, I wrote a post on the Yellen Fed and how the addition of the “quit rates” data point may impact the Fed’s decision in 2014:
To get an idea of what Ms. Yellen thinks about the current state of the economy, we should look to “quit rates”.
Yellen has been a fan of the quit rate for some time and has referenced it in past speeches as an indicator she looks at.
From the 2013 National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference:
“I am likely to supplement the data on employment and unemployment with measures of gross job flows, such as job loss and hiring, which describe the underlying dynamics of the labor market. For instance, layoffs and discharges as a share of total employment have already returned to their pre-recession level, while the hiring rate remains depressed. Therefore, going forward, I would look for an increase in the rate of hiring. Similarly, a pickup in the quit rate, which also remains at a low level, would signal that workers perceive that their chances to be rehired are good–in other words, that labor demand has strengthened.”
I want to update that data on this discussion. Below is data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) December 10th report on quit rates.
While November data has not been released yet, one of the key indicators that Janet Yellen will be looking at hasn’t improved. Quit rates have remained steady for the past few months and have not show the same improvement as the unemployment rate.
Read the full BLS report here: