Signal & Noise: Weekly Signal Report
A weekly review of market regime, leadership, and what names pass our screening process
Issue No. 3 · Tuesday · June 9, 2026
What’s Inside:
At a Glance - A “weight of the evidence” look at the current market environment, as well as my Regime map.
The Call - A deeper dive into the “weight of the evidence.”
Under the Hood - Current market internals, sector breadth, and intermarket analysis.
Sector Watch - Which sectors pass/fail the screening process.
Current Screen - Which stocks pass the screening process.
What I Am Watching - Stocks I am watching that are approaching a passing grade in the screening process.
At a Glance
Market regime: Cautious — Trend constructive, breadth not yet confirming.
The Call
Short-term indicators suggest caution, while longer-term indicators remain intact.
Cautious - Last Friday’s market decline caused the short-term indicators we follow to turn negative.
Momentum and Supertrend indicators both turned negative, indicating the market may be entering a period of caution.
Investors seem to be worrying more about the growth of AI, the approaching mid-term elections, and how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will handle the current inflation/stagflation cycle.
Intermediate and long-term indicators are still supporting a continuation of the current bull market.
The S&P 500 index remains above both the daily and weekly Cloud model.
High Yield Credit Spreads Are Still Low
High-yield credit spreads remain low, confirming this is a short-term pullback/consolidation. When HY credit spreads widen, it indicates higher perceived credit risk, which is usually associated with economic distress.
In addition, as I have mentioned before, this time of year is historically weak for the stock market. Typically, the summer before the midterm elections is weak:
Until short-term indicators turn positive, the weight of the evidence indicates investors are taking a “wait and see” approach to the market.
Under The Hood
