Signal & Noise: Weekly Signal Report - June 16 2026
A weekly review of market regime, leadership, and which names are passing our screening process.
Issue No. 4 · Tuesday · June 16, 2026
What’s Inside:
At a Glance - A “weight of the evidence” look at the current market environment, as well as my Regime map.
The Call - A deeper dive into the “weight of the evidence.”
Under the Hood - Current market internals, sector breadth, and intermarket analysis.
Sector Watch - Which sectors pass/fail the screening process.
Current Screen - Which stocks pass the screening process.
What I Am Watching - Stocks I am watching that are approaching a passing grade in the screening process. Plus, what changed from last week.
At a Glance
Market regime: Cautious — Improving, but momentum and intermarket signals are still mixed.
The Call
Cautious/Improving - The S&P 500 index is attempting to recover from its recent pullback on the news of a U.S. and Iran agreement extending their ceasefire for 60 days, with a formal signing ceremony expected this Friday and nuclear talks to follow.
The market is also waiting to hear from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh this week. On Tuesday, the FOMC two-day meeting starts, with an official statement being released on Wednesday.
Currently, the market is not anticipating any rate changes, but it will be closely watching to see what Warsh’s first statement and outlook will be.
Taking a technical look at the S&P 500 index, momentum has not yet turned positive, and the index is still trading below our short-term trend indicators. (Intermediate and long-term trends are still positive).
The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 Index (RSP), however, is breaking out to new all-time highs. Our short-term trend indicator for RSP never went negative, and momentum continues to rise.
This is an indication of market rotation away from growth into value.
Month to date, sectors like Consumer Staples, Financials, and Real Estate have helped push the equal-weight index (RSP) higher, while the tech-heavy S&P 500 index was declining:
Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG), which help us visualize the relationship between momentum and relative strength, show the rotation away from tech and into sectors like Financials and Health Care over the past month:
This rotation may be short-lived. If I add the two Semiconductor ETFs (SMH and SOXX), we can see Semiconductors are re-strengthening and starting to rotate back into a leadership position:
If this trend continues, semiconductors will help the Tech sector rotate back into strength, possibly at the expense of this month’s value leaders.
Under The Hood
