Contents:
Changes to Research
AI Theme Overview
Risks to the AI Cycle
Pass/Fail Screen for AI Universe
Changes to Research
I’ve decided to start publishing my research on a daily basis. Each day will have a specific focus:
Monday: The Week Ahead - Potential market-moving catalysts (news, earnings, data, etc).
Tuesday: Macro Watch - Macro themes that are driving the market.
Wednesday: Sector Watch - Sector rotation, leadership, and where the next opportunities may emerge.
Thursday: AI Model Update - An update on my AI-themed model.
Friday: The 30,000 Foot View - An opinion/observation piece on the themes driving the market/economy.
Each day I will also be including the names within my AI Universe (these are the companies that are involved in the AI theme) that pass or fail my screen. These are not just technology companies, but companies across various sectors that are benefiting from the growth in AI.
The AI Model: Overview
At ARTAIS Capital, I manage a model that is based on the AI Theme. In the coming weeks, I will walk you through the theme, the signals I use, and how I manage risk, plus updates/observations of the model.
The concept of the strategy is to participate in the growth of AI while actively managing risk.
Based on my research and the research of others, the opportunity is immense, potentially adding trillions to US GDP:
The growth of AI is predicted to come in phases:
…and I believe we are still in the very early stages of growth, as most users are still using AI chatbots and not fully utilizing AI agents.
As someone who was around during the tech boom of the 1990s, I find that where we are in the AI cycle reminds me of when AOL started sending free disks to almost everyone in the country.
Currently, companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and others are using the app stores to send out the equivalent of these free disks.
However, AOL wasn’t the internet. It was just a portal. During this time, very few people were on the internet and taking advantage of the vast resources of the World Wide Web.
I argue that consumers today are on the equivalent of AOL.
Which puts us pretty early in the AI cycle:
The Risks
You may be saying, “John, what about inflation, oil, the elections, etc and etc…?”