When Missiles Fly, What Happens to Markets?

A Data-Driven Look at Stocks, Bonds, and Sectors After U.S. Military Strikes

“The stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions.” — Paul Samuelson. But here’s what Samuelson didn’t say: it’s also priced in roughly zero of the last eight U.S. military strikes within six months.

This past weekend, the United States and Israel launched joint military strikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and multiple senior officials. It was the most significant direct U.S. military action against a sovereign nation since the Iraq War in 2003.

Markets reacted on cue: S&P 500 futures fell more than 1%. Brent crude surged over 9% toward $79 per barrel. Gold jumped nearly 3%. CNBC ran the banner: “MARKETS IN TURMOIL.”

If your instinct is to sell first and ask questions later, I understand it. But before you let headlines dictate your portfolio, let’s look at what actually happens to the stockmarket and specific sectors in the…