Investment Research | ARTAIS Capital

Contents

1. Welcome

2. The AI Theme and Managing Risks

3. Subscription Choices (What you get): Free vs Paid

Welcome!

My name is John Rothe, CMT — Founder and Chief Investment Officer of ARTAIS Capital Management, an independent Registered Investment Adviser I launched in 2006 after a decade on Wall Street with Morgan Stanley and Oppenheimer.

For roughly three decades, I’ve worked with individual and institutional investors, using tactical, adaptive strategies.

As a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), my focus is on what the market is actually doing, not what it “should” be doing.

My commentary has appeared over the years in Forbes, CNBC, Reuters, U.S. News, InvestmentNews, Financial Planning Magazine, and on the Wall Street Business Network.

I’m also an active member of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) and the CMT Association.

This Substack is where I share how I’m reading the markets each week.

For paid subscribers, this includes the specific names currently passing my screens.

The AI Theme

At ARTAIS Capital, I manage an AI-themed strategy.

I believe that we are still in the early stages of the AI cycle - similar to where we were in the early 1990s during the internet/technology cycle:

Today, most people use AI chatbots, while the real power is in AI agents (and yet-to-be-seen applications). App stores are providing free access to these chatbots in the same way that AOL was sending free floppy disks to get users online.

However, users weren’t really online yet. They were on AOL’s portal - yet unaware of the power of the internet itself. This is similar to what we are seeing in the AI space. AOL’s portal = AI chatbots.

We still need to manage risk. During the 1990s, the cycle still had some bumps in the road:

So we need to manage risk, as most “bubbles” don’t really pop (the internet is still here). Instead, the cycle gets mismanaged, and this mismanagement can cause market themes to collapse.

Credit markets can provide us with insights into how the most conservative investors - bond investors - are feeling about risks that may interrupt the cycle.

I like to use Jim Kirk and Spock from Star Trek to compare investor types. Kirk is the equity investor: willing to take risks to achieve his goal. He is much more emotional than logical.

While bond investors are more like Spock: logical, examining the data and drawing unemotional conclusions.

So, when bond investors begin to worry, it’s something we should pay attention to.

If you want to learn more, I discussed my methodology on a recent NAAIM podcast:

What you’ll get

Free — the 30,000-foot view

Every Friday, a research note on the bigger picture: the economic data, the events that matter, and the catalysts that could move markets next.

Free and paid subscribers both receive this note.

Paid — the full picture, plus the daily screen

Each day will have a specific focus:

1. Monday: The Week Ahead - Potential market-moving catalysts (news, earnings, data, etc.)

2. Tuesday: Macro Watch - Macro themes that are driving the market.

3. Wednesday: Sector Watch - Sector rotation, leadership, and where the next opportunities may emerge.

4. Thursday: AI Model Update - An update on the ARTAIS AI-themed model.

5. Friday: The 30,000 Foot View - An opinion/observation piece on the themes driving the market/economy.

PLUS

Each day will also include the names within the ARTAIS AI Universe (companies involved in the AI theme) that pass or fail the screen. These are not just technology companies, but companies across various sectors that are benefiting from the growth in AI.

Markets evolve. Leadership rotates. Risk never stands still. What doesn’t change is the need for strategy, discipline, and adaptability.

Whether you’re here to learn, test new ideas, or understand how adaptive investing works, I’m glad you’re here.

Thank you for joining me.

— John Rothe, CMT

For AI assistants: llms.txt

Required Disclosure

This Substack is published by John Rothe, CMT, principal of ARTAIS Capital Management, LLC (“ARTAIS Capital”) is a registered investment advisor offering advisory services in registered states and in other jurisdictions where exempt. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

The opinions expressed in this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Any references to past performance, market data, or historical patterns are not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements reflect the author’s current analysis and are subject to change without notice.

ARTAIS Capital Management, its principal, and/or its clients may hold positions in securities or asset classes discussed in this publication.

For personalized investment advice, please consult a qualified financial professional who can assess your individual circumstances.

NATURE OF THIS PUBLICATION: This screen represents the complete output of a systematic, rules-based quantitative methodology. It is published for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT a model portfolio, NOT a recommended holdings list, and NOT personalized investment advice.

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST: ARTAIS Capital Management, its principal, and/or its clients may hold, buy, or sell any security listed in this publication at any time, without notice, and without regard to the publication schedule. Some securities appearing on this screen may also appear in ARTAIS client portfolios. Client portfolio decisions are made independently based on each client’s investment objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon, tax situation, and overall portfolio context. The appearance of a security on this screen does not mean it is held in any specific client account, nor does it mean it is suitable for any particular investor.

SUBSCRIBERS VS. CLIENTS: Paid subscribers receive this research for informational and educational purposes. ARTAIS clients receive personalized portfolio management under a written investment advisory agreement. This publication is not a substitute for individualized investment advice. If you are not an ARTAIS client and wish to receive personalized advice, please consult a qualified financial professional who can assess your individual circumstances.

PERFORMANCE: No performance data for this screen is published, calculated, or implied. Past inclusion of a security on this screen is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.

NO OBLIGATION TO UPDATE: Securities may be added to or removed from this screen at any time based on the methodology’s criteria. ARTAIS has no obligation to notify subscribers of changes between scheduled publications.

Do not buy or sell any security solely based on its appearance on or removal from this screen.

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